What do the 2020 Census data tell us about young children’s and families' futures in the context of ecological crisis?

by Katherine Prince

As we face the many challenges that the future will bring, one way to create flourishing futures for young children and their families is to place stability at the center of efforts to improve family life. Young children and their families will always need safe housing, nutritious food, high-quality medical care and learning opportunities, and strong social and emotional support. Climate change threatens families’ and communities’ ability to provide these foundations.

This post explores what the 2020 Census data can tell us about young children’s and families' futures in the context of looming climate migration.

Climate Displacement Is Beginning

Climate change is here today. Witness the widespread flooding and destruction caused by Hurricane Ida, the wildfires raging across the American West and the doubling of the number of extremely hot days over 122°F (50°C) around the world since the 1980s. President Biden recently warned that the U.S. only has about 10 years left to counter climate change.

The United Nations’ August 2021 climate report was described by Secretary-General António Guterres as “a code red for humanity,” as global warming has already risen 1.98°F (1.1°C) above pre-industrial levels and is expected to reach or exceed 2.7°F (1.5°C) over the next 20 years. And it could be worse: a recent report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change sets forth five scenarios wherein warming ranges from 3.42°F (1.9°C) to 7.92°F (4.4°C) depending on how much action people take.

As the places where we live increasingly get buffeted by the effects of human-caused climate change, millions of people in the U.S. will be displaced by choice or necessity. Others will find themselves subsisting in place. In some areas such as California, the high cost of housing has already placed working-class people closer to the path of fire than those in higher-paying, white-collar jobs. Compounding such difficulties, climate change will continue to displace people across the globe, raising questions about how to support global climate refugees.

As reported by The New York Times, a 2018 study suggested that “one in 12 Americans in the Southern half of the country will move toward California, the Mountain West or the Northwest over the next 45 years because of climate influence alone,” increasing poverty and income inequality and accelerating urbanization. A 2020 analysis by ProPublica anticipates “mass migration of Americans away from distress in much of the southern and coastal regions of the country. Meanwhile, the northern Midwest and Great Plains will benefit, in farm productivity, in economy and in overall comfort.”

As the differences in these studies show, it is hard to know how any given place will fare, given the unpredictable nature of climate change. In any case, it seems clear that a massive population shift – of the scale of the Dust Bowl – will take place in the context of environmental injustice that has long taken a heavier toll on communities of color and low-income communities than on white, affluent ones. One uncertainty is whether those places that come to be seen as climate havens will welcome climate migrants.

We know that young children, along with elders, are among the most vulnerable to climate change. Their vulnerability is increased when they live in poverty.

States’ Vulnerability to Climate Impacts

Those U.S. states most susceptible to extreme heat and coastal flooding tend to score the worst in analyses looking at possible impacts of climate change. In addition, severe storms, drought, water stress, wildfire risk, habitat loss and disease vectors such as mosquitos and ticks can be factors that increase states’ vulnerability.

A recent report by Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health and Trust for America’s Health examined states’ readiness to protect residents from the health impacts of climate change. It considered environmental risks alongside social and demographic factors. Its rankings for the most and least vulnerable states appear below.

As with other analyses and climate change indices, this report revealed that the southeastern U.S. states are most vulnerable to the public health effects of climate change. These states are prone to severe storms and have relatively high poverty levels. In contrast, more northerly states tend to be less vulnerable, although they too face challenges that vary depending on location and weather patterns.

“The southeastern U.S. states are most vulnerable to the public health effects of climate change.”

Despite being relatively vulnerable, California and Texas remain the most populous states, having grown 6.1% and 15.9% over the last decade, respectively. California’s growth slowed, down from 10% in the previous decade. Florida’s population grew 14.6% over the last decade, making it the third most populous state. South Carolina’s population grew 10.7%, North Carolina’s grew 9.5%, Tennessee’s grew 8.9% and Georgia’s grew 7.4% (one of the top five numeric increases). Among the most vulnerable states in the table above, only Mississippi and West Virginia saw population declines.

Fewer Children

For context, the 2020 Census showed that the overall U.S. population grew by 7.4% between 2010 and 2020, the lowest rate since the 1930s. As shown below, the adult population grew faster than the population of people under 18, while the population of young children shrank more.

An ongoing decrease in fertility and the aging of Baby Boomers are contributing to these shifts. As people become increasingly aware of climate change and the urgent need to ameliorate it -- and as economic opportunity decreases -- more and more individuals might decide to limit family size or forgo having children. The BirthStrike movement in the UK is one early indicator pointing in this direction. Given that parenthood has been shown by a recent Capita survey to increase a sense of social connection and support -- particularly for young adults -- this possibility could undermine social cohesion.

Increasing Urbanization

The 2020 Census data revealed that the 10 largest cities in the U.S. grew in the past decade, as did 81% of U.S. metropolitan areas. In contrast, only 48% of U.S. micropolitan areas (a city with 10,000 to 50,000 residents and its surrounding communities) and 47% of counties or equivalents grew during this time.

As shown below, the percentages living in metropolitan and micropolitan statistical areas held fairly steady.

While not all cities and suburbs are growing evenly, an established trend toward increasing urbanization is expected to continue, even as cities in North America report poor infrastructure and budgetary capacity as barriers to building resilience in the face of climate change and anticipate increased risk to already vulnerable populations, along with increased demand for public services.

Regional Shifts

In addition to being the most vulnerable to the effects of climate change, the South is also the region whose overall population and population of people under 18 increased the most between 2010 and 2020. It also had the highest proportion of young people (22.5%). The adult population in the West grew the fastest.

The chart below shows the overall and regional shifts in population from 2000 to 2010 and from 2010 to 2020, broken out by adults and children.

These data show that the population of children is growing in the most vulnerable U.S. region while shrinking elsewhere, putting children in the South at potentially greatest risk of climate displacement and other impacts.

Significant Poverty Levels

Compounding their age-related vulnerability to climate change, children in the U.S. continue to experience higher poverty levels than adults and the overall population.

While the 2020 Census showed poverty rates to be considerably lower in 2020 than in 2010, they had begun inching back up following five years of annual declines.

In addition, there remain notable differences in poverty rates among household types. Child poverty varies by type of family as shown below.

These data show that child poverty remains a significant concern. They suggest that the levels and types of familial support needed to navigate the dual impacts of poverty and climate change could vary by type of household. Furthermore, all of the states that are most vulnerable to climate change have poverty rates higher than the overall rate for 2020. As climate change intensifies and food prices continue to rise globally, struggles to get enough food and make ends meet will likely intensify.

“All of the states that are most vulnerable to climate change have poverty rates higher than the overall rate for 2020. As climate change intensifies and food prices continue to rise globally, struggles to get enough food and make ends meet will likely intensify.”

Resilience Is Key

The coming decades will bring significant climate-related disruption, including migration away from more vulnerable states for those who can afford to leave. They will also leave many struggling to find viable options. In either case, young children and families will need support in building and maintaining resilience even as governments struggle to operate effectively.

The challenges of supporting young children and their families will be exacerbated by the need to keep rebuilding, rescuing and bailing out the many places impacted by climate change. These efforts will likely reduce the funds and attention available for other social programs. In addition, disputes over whether responsibility for damages lies with residents or polluters will proliferate, impacting insurance costs and rates of payment for lost property and further undermining families’ ability to stay afloat.

Amidst these challenges, flexible approaches within systems such as childcare, education, health care and food support will be needed. So too will mental health systems: children are already experiencing eco-anxiety, with over 50% of global youth surveyed by researchers at the University of Bath having reported feeling sad, anxious, angry, powerless, helpless and guilty about climate change. We may need entirely new forms of social infrastructure that span existing jurisdictions. We need to address existing inequities across populations and places and anticipate how to buffer against new or deepening ones as some people literally get left behind in places that are decreasingly stable or even decreasingly habitable.

Katherine Prince is the Vice President, Strategic Foresight at KnowledgeWorks. Graphics by Southpaw Collective.

Bracing for Impact: Insights about Climate Change, Young Children and the 2020 Census